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In 2019, the historic theater in McAllen’s downtown district made headlines with its marquee proclaiming, “Welcome to McAllen, 7th Safest City in America.” This message served to counter the prevailing narrative about the dangers of the border, especially ahead of a visit from President Donald Trump. The ranking was derived from a 2015 study by Smart Asset, a financial technology website.
Fast forward to 2025, and McAllen is once again making headlines, this time for celebrating its lowest crime rates in 40 years. This improvement is not an isolated case; it mirrors a broader trend across Texas and the nation.
According to Uniform Crime Reporting Data from the Texas Department of Public Safety, crime rates in Texas have been on a decline since peaking in 2022 at 2,830.14 per 100,000 people. Notably, the crime rate dropped by 3.3% between 2022 and 2023, followed by an 8.2% decrease from 2023 to 2024, and a substantial 13% drop from 2024 to 2025.
In McAllen, which boasts a population of around 151,000, there was a remarkable 21% reduction in crime in 2025. Brownsville, the largest city in the Rio Grande Valley, experienced a similar decrease of 21% in crime during the same period.
“We’ve been decreasing crime on a fairly consistent basis,” stated McAllen Police Chief Victor Rodriguez. He attributes this success to several factors, including population growth, community engagement in reporting potential crimes, and sustained funding for public safety, which allows for a police presence of two officers per 1,000 residents.
Interestingly, Rodriguez also noted that increased immigration enforcement during Trump’s second term might have contributed to the drop in crime. “The saturation of law enforcement authorities in this part of the country has helped us maintain a lower crime rate,” he explained.
However, experts caution that while the presence of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) may impact crime rates, it also instills fear in immigrant communities, potentially affecting crime reporting. The implications of this fear on crime statistics remain a topic for further research.
As noted by criminologist Alex del Carmen, the decline in crime rates is not unique to Texas. Homicides in major U.S. cities have dropped significantly—about 21% between 2024 and 2025, and down 44% from the peak in 2021. “Texas is riding that same wave,” del Carmen remarked.
Research indicates that aggressive immigration enforcement does not have a clear effect on crime rates. Thomas Abt, founding director of the Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction, stated, “I haven’t seen any hard evidence that suggests that aggressive immigration enforcement has any effect on crime, positive or negative.” Furthermore, studies reveal that immigrants, on average, are less likely to commit crimes than U.S. citizens.
Concerns About Reporting Bias
There is a legitimate concern that the decline in crime may partially stem from fear among immigrant communities regarding reporting crimes. Following the implementation of the Secure Communities program in 2008, Hispanic victims became 30% less likely to report crimes. This hesitance extended beyond undocumented immigrants, affecting citizens as well.
More recent surveys indicate that 16% of foreign-born Latinos have avoided contacting police out of fear of being questioned about their legal status. Police chiefs in cities like Los Angeles and Houston have linked drops in crime reports from Latino residents to fears of deportation.
Despite these fears impacting reporting, homicide statistics—often seen as the most reliable indicators of crime—have also declined, suggesting that the drop in crime rates cannot be solely attributed to underreporting.
According to Abt, reliable data exists for serious crimes like homicides and assaults, while lesser offenses often depend on law enforcement focus. For instance, during the pandemic, anecdotal evidence pointed to increased shoplifting that did not fully reflect in data, raising questions about the accuracy of crime reporting.
A Return to Normalcy
The current decline in crime rates may reflect a return to normal following a spike in crime during 2020 and 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted social structures, and the subsequent civil unrest following the murder of George Floyd contributed to societal instability.
Amid this turmoil, gun sales surged, with first-time buyers making up 40% of new gun owners in 2020. In response to the crime spike, public sentiment became polarized, with some advocating for aggressive policing while others called for police reform or defunding.
What ultimately emerged,
