DUBAI – Pakistan is actively working on facilitating a second round of talks between Iran and the United States in Islamabad, amid a precarious ceasefire that is at risk of collapsing. The critical question remains whether Iran will send a delegation to these discussions.
Despite the ongoing negotiations, both sides are maintaining a firm stance. U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning, stating that “lots of bombs” could be deployed if an agreement is not reached before the ceasefire deadline, which he has set for Wednesday. Conversely, Iran’s chief negotiator has hinted at “new cards on the battlefield” that have yet to be disclosed.
The current ceasefire, which began on April 8, is set to be extended if the talks proceed as planned. White House officials have indicated that U.S. Vice President JD Vance will lead the American delegation. However, Iran has not announced who will represent them, with state television reporting that “no delegation from Iran has visited Islamabad… so far.”
The Iranian state media, often influenced by hardliners within the regime, suggests an internal struggle regarding how to respond to recent U.S. actions, including the seizure of an Iranian container ship by the U.S. Navy over the weekend.
Strait of Hormuz: A Key Element in Negotiations
Control over the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a pivotal issue in the ongoing negotiations. The U.S. has implemented a blockade on Iranian ports to compel Tehran to relinquish its grip on this crucial shipping lane, which is responsible for 20% of the world’s natural gas and crude oil transport during peacetime.
The tensions surrounding the strait have driven oil prices to new heights; Brent crude, the international benchmark, was nearing $95 per barrel on Tuesday, representing over a 30% increase since February 28, the date of the onset of hostilities initiated by Israel and the U.S. against Iran.
Prior to the outbreak of conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was open to international shipping. Trump has demanded the restoration of unimpeded transit through the waterway.
In Brussels, European Union transportation ministers convened to discuss strategies for protecting consumers, as the head of the International Energy Agency warned that Europe has “maybe six weeks” of jet fuel supplies left.
Over the weekend, Iran indicated it had received new proposals from Washington but suggested significant gaps remain between the parties. The previous round of talks faltered over issues such as Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, its regional proxies, and control of the Strait.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, accused the United States of seeking Iran’s capitulation, asserting that Iran is poised to reveal “new cards on the battlefield.” He emphasized on X that “we do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats.”
Pakistan’s Role and Optimism for Talks
In the midst of the escalating rhetoric, Pakistani officials have expressed optimism that Iran will dispatch a delegation by late Tuesday to facilitate the talks. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar engaged in discussions with his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelatty, to address the latest regional developments as part of the preparatory diplomatic efforts.
Security measures have been heightened across Islamabad, with thousands of personnel deployed and increased patrols along airport access routes. These arrangements are reportedly more stringent than those during the initial talks held on April 11 and 12, indicating the potential for high-level participation if negotiations yield progress, as noted by Islamabad-based security analyst Syed Mohammad Ali.
“Pakistan appears to be preparing for the possibility of visits by top U.S. and Iranian leaders if the talks advance to a stage where an agreement could be signed,” he stated in an interview.
Further Diplomatic Developments
In addition to the discussions between Iran and the U.S., historic diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon are set to resume on Thursday in Washington. This development has been confirmed by officials from all three nations, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss behind-the-scenes negotiations.
Last week, the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors engaged in their first direct diplomatic talks in decades, aimed at disarming Hezbollah and negotiating a peace agreement. A 10-day ceasefire commenced on Friday in Lebanon, following recent clashes between Israeli forces and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants, which erupted after the U.S. and Israel launched joint operations against Iran.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with more than 2,290 lives lost in Lebanon and at least 3,375 reported deaths in Iran since hostilities began. In Israel, 23 individuals have died, alongside casualties among Gulf Arab states, with 15 Israeli soldiers and 13 U.S. service members also killed in the region.
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Rising reported from Bangkok, and Gambrell from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Sam McNeil contributed to this story from Brussels.
