AUSTIN, Texas – The Democratic Party is preparing for an unprecedented shift in its presidential nomination process as it gears up for the 2028 election. The early primary calendar is set to highlight states where candidates must appeal to diverse voter bases, particularly Black and Latino communities, as well as union members. This change marks a significant evolution in the party’s strategy to better reflect its diverse electorate.
In a notable move, Iowa will no longer hold the coveted first primary slot, potentially reducing the need for candidates to bundle up in parkas during the harsh winter months. Instead, South Carolina will kick off the primary season on January 22, followed by Nevada on February 1. The early voting lineup continues with New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia throughout February.
DNC Chairman Ken Martin emphasized the significance of this change, stating, “It shouldn’t surprise anyone as a result of it being the largest and most diverse committee that we got the most diverse calendar in our party’s history.” This new calendar aims to position candidates favorably as they seek to challenge former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
The early primaries are expected to attract a wide array of candidates. Some have already begun campaigning in South Carolina, understanding that the state’s primary is pivotal for garnering support from its significant Black voter population, which has historically played a crucial role in the nomination of Democratic candidates.
Karen Finney, a seasoned party strategist, noted that candidates must demonstrate their ability to engage with various demographic groups across the South and West, stating, “Whoever survives will be battle tested.” The changing landscape of the primaries could lead to candidates who are more adaptable and attuned to the needs of diverse constituents.
Reflecting on past experiences, former DNC Chair Howard Dean remarked that this new arrangement is superior to the previous model, which prioritized Iowa and New Hampshire, two states that do not accurately represent the demographic makeup of the country. “These states look more like the country,” he said, emphasizing the importance of diversity in the electoral process.
As the first-in-the-South primary, South Carolina has proven decisive for past nominees including Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden. Each of these candidates has garnered significant support from the state’s Black population, which constitutes a substantial portion of the Democratic primary electorate.
The inclusion of Nevada and New Mexico in the early primaries will require candidates to prioritize outreach to Latino voters. This shift represents a broader strategy aimed at reflecting the changing demographics of the United States and ensuring that candidates are prepared to engage with a diverse electorate.
While candidates may still experience breakthroughs akin to Pete Buttigieg’s rise during the 2020 cycle, they will now do so in more racially and ethnically diverse environments. “If you can’t go to every part of this country and make your case, you should not be running for president,” Finney asserted, underscoring the necessity of broad appeal in a national campaign.
The electoral dynamics between progressives and mainstream liberals may also play a role in this new primary structure. Boyd Brown, a former DNC member from South Carolina, suggested that voters in the South may differ significantly from those in northern states. “It’s not the woke ideologies that we just can’t get away from,” he commented, hinting at the varying priorities among Democratic voters.
Conversely, Nina Smith, a former adviser to Buttigieg, argued that while Black voters in South Carolina may lean towards moderate candidates, they also possess progressive values that are often overlooked. “Southern Black voters are more progressive than they’re given credit for,” she stated, highlighting the need for candidates to listen and adapt their messages accordingly.
The newly structured primary calendar also brings organized labor into the spotlight. States like Nevada, Michigan, and Virginia represent significant labor interests, with Nevada showcasing service industry unions and Michigan highlighting auto manufacturing. Dean emphasized the importance of labor in the electoral process, stating, “Labor is still so important.”
Campaigns will face the challenge of balancing voter engagement, fundraising, and logistical demands. However, the expanded early primary schedule provides opportunities for campaign clustering, allowing candidates to maximize their time and resources across critical states. This means a candidate could effectively campaign in Nevada, New Mexico, and even schedule fundraisers in California within a single trip.
Moreover, with all but South Carolina being competitive general election states, candidates will invest considerable time and resources in battlegrounds that could yield significant Electoral College votes. This preemptive campaigning positions the eventual nominee advantageously as they head into the general election.
As noted by Brown, “This is not a social or a debate club. It is a political party,” emphasizing the critical nature of strategic planning for the Democratic Party as it moves toward the 2028 election cycle.
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Barrow reported from Atlanta. Associated Press reporter Meg Kinnard in Columbia, South Carolina, also contributed.
