In a closely watched race for the 18th Congressional District of Texas, Rep. Christian Menefee has taken a commanding lead over Rep. Al Green, according to a recent poll conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. With just days to go before the runoff election, Menefee is ahead by 7 percentage points, receiving 50% of the vote compared to Green’s 43%.
The poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters from May 5 to May 8 and carries a margin of error of +/-3.46 percentage points, highlights the competitive nature of this Democratic primary. The two candidates are vying for the opportunity to represent a district that has been predominantly Black and Democratic for decades.
This election is particularly significant, as it follows a redistricting process initiated by Texas GOP legislators that shifted the 9th District, which Green has held for over 20 years, into GOP-friendly territory. Consequently, a substantial portion of Green’s current constituents have been moved into the new 18th District, where he now faces the younger Menefee, who was elected in January to fill out the late Sylvester Turner’s term.
Menefee’s rise in popularity is notable; he secured 46% of the vote in the March primary, edging out Green, who received 44.2%. The runoff will determine the nominee on May 26, as neither candidate achieved a majority in the initial voting round.
Demographic factors play a crucial role in this race. The poll indicates that Green maintains a narrow lead among Black voters, who represent a significant portion of the district and the Democratic primary electorate, with 48% supporting him compared to Menefee’s 45%. Conversely, Menefee enjoys substantial support among white voters, leading by 33 points, and holds an 18-point advantage among Latino voters.
The 18th District has historically been a stronghold for Black political power in Houston and is one of the two majority-Black districts under Texas’s new congressional map. This election comes at a time of heightened scrutiny regarding voting rights, especially following the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decisions affecting minority representation.
Age dynamics are also a significant theme in this primary, especially in light of the fact that two representatives from the district have passed away in recent years. Menefee leads among voters under 55, while the over-55 demographic is more evenly split between the two candidates.
In parallel, the University of Houston’s poll also examined the Republican runoff in the 9th Congressional District, where Army veteran Alex Mealer currently leads state Rep. Briscoe Cain by a margin of 50% to 41%. This district has undergone significant changes, with a new configuration that would have favored Donald Trump by 19 points in the 2024 election.
Mealer, who gained recognition from her close race against Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo in 2022, has received a boost from former President Trump’s endorsement earlier this year. Cain, backed by Governor Greg Abbott, has a solid legislative background representing Deer Park and La Porte.
The poll data indicates that Mealer performs particularly well among women, white voters, and independents, while Cain’s support remains strong among traditional Republican bases. Additionally, the endorsement of third-place candidate Steve Stockman has the potential to influence the runoff, as the poll found Stockman voters divided closely between Cain and Mealer.
As both races approach their decisive moments, the implications of these elections stretch far beyond local politics, touching upon themes of representation, demographic shifts, and the ongoing evolution of voting rights in Texas.
Disclosure: The University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations, and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
