BEXAR COUNTY, Texas – As we approach the 2026 midterm elections, the influence of Latino voters in Texas cannot be overstated. With nearly 6.3 million eligible Latino voters representing about 31.7% of the state’s electorate, their support is crucial for candidates seeking election in this diverse and rapidly changing political landscape.
Historically, Latino voters have leaned toward the Democratic Party; however, recent elections indicate a significant shift. In several South Texas counties, including Webb, Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron, voters who supported Democrats in 2020 chose Republican candidates in the 2024 presidential election. This transformation raises critical questions as we head into the forthcoming elections: Will these counties maintain their Republican leanings, or will they revert to supporting Democratic candidates?
David Crockett, a political science professor at Trinity University, emphasizes the growing importance of Latino voters. He notes, “They are a growing percentage of the population and a growing percentage of the electorate.” Their ability to swing either way makes them a target for both major parties.
The shift in political allegiance is evident in the numbers: the Republican share of the two-party presidential vote increased from 38.2% to 51.1% in Webb County and from 47.5% to 58% in Starr County. While these figures do not isolate Latino voters specifically, they reflect a broader trend in the region that may impact future elections.
Economic concerns play a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment. A recent survey highlighted that 86% of Latino registered voters prioritize economic issues when casting their congressional votes. Challenges related to gas prices, housing affordability, and the cost of living resonate strongly within this community. Crockett remarks, “If gas prices are in excess of $4 a gallon, they’re going to feel that as much as you or I feel that.”
Immigration policy also remains a hot-button issue. A significant 56% of Texas Latino voters perceive the current administration’s immigration enforcement efforts as excessive. This sentiment could influence their voting preferences, as indicated by recent polling data showing Democrats leading in various races among Latino voters. For example, Democrat Gina Hinojosa is currently ahead of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, 52% to 43%, in one poll, while Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 55% to 37%.
Interestingly, a separate University of Houston Hobby School survey identified a division between rural and urban Latino voters. Rural voters expressed more support for Republican candidates, whereas urban voters favored Democrats. This divergence underscores that Latino voters in Texas do not share a monolithic set of political priorities.
Crockett suggests that voter sentiment may shift as constituents observe how elected officials govern. “When they’ve had to govern and make unpopular decisions and things are a little rockier, they lose some of that vote that they got in the presidential election,” he explains.
Community engagement is another crucial factor for some voters. Zoe Zamora, a first-time voter, emphasizes the need for candidates to remain connected with their communities. “I like whenever they’re really involved in our community and not just saying one thing and then doing something completely opposite or just not doing anything at all,” she states. Zamora hopes to see more of this involvement in future elections.
Turnout will be a key element in the upcoming midterms, as these elections historically attract fewer voters than presidential elections. The Pew Research Center has found that Latino voters are more engaged in the 2026 midterm elections compared to previous elections, with those supporting Democratic candidates demonstrating higher motivation to vote.
With redistricting impacting congressional districts, Bexar County and South Texas are set to be significant battlegrounds in the upcoming elections. For Democrats, the challenge will be to consolidate support among Latino voters while competing in areas where Republicans have gained ground. Conversely, Republicans must focus on maintaining the support they garnered in 2024 while addressing critical issues that affect Latino families.
As Election Day approaches on November 3, the outcomes in South Texas could serve as a bellwether for whether the region’s political alignment will continue to trend Republican or shift back toward Democratic candidates. The stakes are high, and both parties will need to navigate the complex needs and concerns of Latino voters to secure their success in the 2026 midterms.
