WASHINGTON – The 2026 midterms saw Democratic candidates reclaim significant ground among key demographic groups, as illustrated by The AP Voter Poll. This shift marks a notable reversal of the gains President Donald Trump made with traditional Democratic voters during the 2024 presidential election.
According to a sweeping survey conducted by The AP Voter Poll, which included over 100,000 voters from all 50 states, the Democratic Party saw a remarkable resurgence, particularly among young voters. The results indicated that Democratic candidates garnered far more support from those under 30 compared to the backing that Vice President Kamala Harris received in the 2024 AP VoteCast survey.
Additionally, Hispanic voters, who had shifted towards Trump in 2024, also gravitated back to Democrats in this election cycle, as did Black voters, especially Black men. Moderates, a group that largely expressed dissatisfaction with Congress’s checks and balances on the presidency, played a crucial role in Democratic victories in several key Senate races.
Economic issues, particularly inflation, significantly impacted voter sentiment. Many reported experiencing at least “moderate” hardship over the past year, leading to a discernible shift among voters with a household income of less than $50,000 away from Republican candidates compared to their choices in 2024.
Key Demographic Shifts in the 2026 Election
The AP Voter Poll outlines how five key demographic groups changed their voting patterns during the 2026 midterms:
Younger Voters Lean Democratic
In a striking reversal from 2024, young voters demonstrated significant support for the Democratic Party. The poll revealed that around 70% of voters under 30 favored the Democratic candidate in their local U.S. House race, while only about 30% opted for the Republican. This stark contrast comes after a relatively balanced split between Trump and Harris in the last presidential election.
First-time midterm voters, who tend to skew younger, also predominantly supported Democratic candidates. However, it’s worth noting that voters under 30 comprised only about 10% of the national electorate, which may have limited the overall impact of this shift.
Displeasure with the political climate was evident among young voters; nearly half expressed anger about the country’s direction, a sentiment echoed by only a third of those aged 65 and older. Approximately 60% of voters under 30 indicated their House vote was partly motivated by opposition to Trump.
Hispanic Voters Shift Back to Democrats
Republicans appeared to lose most of the ground gained with Hispanic voters in 2024, with only about one-third supporting the Republican candidate in their local House race, down from about 40% who backed Trump two years prior. Conversely, around 60% of Hispanic voters nationwide favored the Democratic candidate.
This trend was particularly evident in the Texas Senate race, where Democrat James Talarico received support from approximately 60% of Hispanic voters, in stark contrast to the previous election’s more divided support.
Black Voters Revert to Democratic Support
Black voters, especially Black men, exhibited a return to Democratic support, with only about 10% backing the Republican candidate in their local House races, a decrease from the one-quarter who supported Trump in 2024. About 90% of Black voters supported the Democratic candidate, up from around 80% for Harris.
These shifts were critical in several high-profile races, notably in Georgia, where Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Black woman elected governor, garnering about 90% support from Black men.
Moderate Voters Favor Democrats
Democrats also made gains among moderate voters, especially in key Senate races where they flipped Republican-held seats. Approximately two-thirds of moderates favored the Democratic candidate in their local House races, a rise from about 60% who backed Harris in 2024.
Many moderate voters expressed concerns about Congress’s ability to provide necessary checks and balances, with about 80% indicating they faced significant hardships due to inflation in the past year.
Lower-Income Voters Move Towards Democrats
As economic concerns took center stage, lower-income voters also shifted toward the Democratic Party. Over half of voters with a household income under $50,000 supported Democratic candidates, a notable increase from their more divided stance in the previous election.
The AP Voter Poll highlighted that these voters were significantly more likely to cite the cost of living as crucial to their voting decisions, with around 60% indicating that inflation-related issues were pivotal in their choices.
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The AP Voter Poll is a comprehensive survey conducted by SSRS for The Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, FOX News Media, NBC News, and Versant. The survey combines probability-based and non-probability-based interviews with registered voters across all 50 states conducted from October 19 to November 3 in Alaska, and from October 22 to November 3 in the remaining states. A detailed methodology statement is available, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points for the full sample.
