SAN ANTONIO – Remember the summers of 2022 and 2023? Those were San Antonio’s hottest summers ever recorded in the Alamo City! Thankfully, summer 2026 has been much milder. But what does this mean for our approaching fall and winter? Let’s chat…
Summer 2026 hasn’t been *too* hot
Summer 2026 has featured a pretty rainy June and July. June recorded 6.5 inches of rain at the San Antonio International Airport, which is almost 3.5 inches above average.
Of course, we all remember mid-July, with record rain falling in Uvalde County and across the Hill Country. Kerr County residents along the Guadalupe River had to deal with another major flood, just a year after the devastating July 4, 2025 flood.
Terrible flooding aside, a byproduct of all of the rain has been lower temperatures. San Antonio’s first (and only, so far) triple-digit day just occurred in late July after the rain ended. This is in stark contrast to 2022 and 2023, which featured a staggering 58 and 75 triple-digit days, respectively.
And while we still have most of August left to go this summer, it doesn’t look like we’re going to see exceptionally hot weather.
So with a somewhat mild summer for San Antonio, does this mean anything for our fall and winter months?
Summer weather doesn’t impact fall and winter, but El Niño May…
There is no correlation between a mild summer and winter weather. However, one factor that could impact our winter weather is the strong El Niño expected by the end of the year.
Just a quick refresher: El Niño is the naturally occurring warming of the Pacific waters off the western coast of South America.
El Niño is defined by warmer than average waters in the Pacific off of the coast of South America.
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This warming of the ocean typically brings cooler, rainier weather to Texas in the fall and winter months, although that is not a guarantee. There have been exceptions to the rule.
That said, this winter’s El Niño is expected to be very strong. You may have even heard it being referred to as a “Super El Niño.”
So, odds are even more in our favor for increased rainfall. In fact, looking at the last four winter seasons during strong or very strong El Niños since 1990, the totals have varied, but each winter has had significantly more rain than the average of 1.90 inches of precipitation. IMPORTANT: Snow was not observed during these winters.
The last Strong El Niño Winters
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What about cold? We expect cooler, mild temperatures due to above-average precipitation, not necessarily very intense cold snaps. So, don’t get your hopes up for a white Christmas 😉.
The bottom line: History shows us that a rainier fall and winter is likely to end 2026, not because of our mild summer, but because of a strong El Niño!
Regardless of what happens this winter, you can count on Your Weather Authority to keep you updated daily.
