In a recently conducted poll by Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is showing promising leads against both of his potential Republican opponents in the upcoming Texas U.S. Senate race. While Talarico leads Sen. John Cornyn by a narrow margin of three percentage points (44% to 41%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton by five points (46% to 41%), these results fall within the margin of error, indicating a competitive race ahead.
Conducted between April 17 and April 20, the poll surveyed 1,018 likely general election voters and carries a margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Notably, the Texas Public Opinion Research group, directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford, is recognized for providing nonpartisan insights into the state’s political landscape.
Historically, Texas has been a challenging battleground for Democrats, with no statewide victories since 1994. Past polling often projected optimistic outcomes for the Democratic Party that did not materialize in the general elections. However, the current political climate, influenced by diminishing approval ratings for President Donald Trump and rising discontent among Latino voters regarding the economy and immigration policies, has sparked hope within the Democratic ranks. This environment is reminiscent of the 2018 Senate race, where Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by just three points.
As the Republican contenders, Cornyn and Paxton, prepare for a runoff on May 26 to determine who will challenge Talarico, both candidates are aware of the stakes involved. Talarico has already won a competitive primary, further solidifying his position as a formidable opponent. Throughout the election cycle, several polls—both nonpartisan and those commissioned by Democratic entities—have indicated tight races with Talarico either leading or within the margin of error against potential Republican challengers.
The Texas Senate race is garnering national attention and is noted for being the most expensive primary in the state’s history, predominantly fueled by financial support for Cornyn. While the Cook Political Report designates the seat as “likely Republican,” the unpredictable nature of the Republican runoff, Talarico’s effective fundraising strategies, and recent Democratic successes in special elections have heightened interest from both parties.
Supporters of Cornyn argue that he would pose a stronger challenge in the general election compared to Paxton, especially in a potentially difficult electoral cycle for Republicans. However, the recent TPOR poll indicates that both Cornyn and Paxton perform comparably against Talarico in hypothetical matchups.
Talarico’s voter support appears robust among key demographics, particularly voters of color, college-educated individuals, and independents. Among Black voters, he leads Cornyn by an impressive 51 percentage points and Paxton by 56 points. Furthermore, Talarico holds a 32-point lead over Cornyn and a 27-point lead over Paxton among Latino voters. Among independents, Talarico enjoys significant support, leading 51% to 29% against Cornyn and 53% to 28% against Paxton.
The poll results also reveal that Talarico has a net favorable rating, with 41% of voters viewing him positively compared to 34% who hold unfavorable views. In contrast, both Paxton and Cornyn have unfavorable ratings, with Cornyn experiencing a 15-point deficit in favorability.
Polling for the Republican runoff indicates a competitive race, with Paxton often leading by mere single digits. In a previous TPOR poll conducted from April 6 to 7, Paxton was found to be leading by 8 percentage points.
Beyond the Senate race, the TPOR poll also examined other high-profile contests in Texas. In the race for governor, Republican Greg Abbott holds a narrow lead over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa, with a poll showing Abbott at 48% compared to Hinojosa’s 43%. Notably, Hinojosa has gained traction among Latino voters and independents, although Abbott maintains stronger support than either Cornyn or Paxton within those groups.
Paxton’s decision to run for the Senate has opened up the attorney general seat for the first time in over a decade, leading to crowded primaries for both parties. On the Democratic side, Dallas state Sen. Nathan Johnson is vying against former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski. The Republican runoff features state Sen. Mayes Middleton from Galveston and U.S. Rep. Chip Roy from Austin.
In the attorney general race, the TPOR poll suggests Republicans have a slight edge, leading 45% to 39% over their Democratic counterparts.
As the political landscape evolves, both parties are gearing up for what promises to be a closely contested election season in Texas, with the Senate race at the forefront of national attention.
