AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey’s special congressional election

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WASHINGTON – For the first time in 2023, residents of New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District will elect a representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. This special election follows the departure of Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill, who previously held the seat.

The stakes are high for both parties, as a Democratic win in this typically Democratic-leaning district would further tighten the Republicans’ slim majority in Congress. The major candidates vying for this critical position include Democrat Analilia Mejia, a seasoned progressive organizer and former Labor Department official, and Republican Joe Hathaway, who serves on the Randolph Township Council.

Mejia’s campaign gained momentum with endorsements from prominent progressive figures such as U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She narrowly defeated a competitive field, including former U.S. Representative Tom Malinowski and former Lieutenant Governor Tahesha Way, in the Democratic special primary held on February 5.

On the Republican side, Hathaway ran unopposed for the nomination, positioning him to challenge Mejia in a district that has historically leaned Democratic.

A significant issue in this election is the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. A super PAC linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has invested over $2.3 million to target Malinowski, who had previously raised questions regarding unconditional aid to Israel. During a campaign forum, Mejia was the sole candidate to assert that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, and she has labeled Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal. Conversely, Hathaway advocates for unwavering U.S. support for Israel, opposing any conditions on aid to allies.

In terms of campaign finance, Mejia has raised approximately $1.1 million for both the special primary and election, with about $374,000 remaining in her campaign account as of March 27. Hathaway’s fundraising, in contrast, totaled around $525,000, leaving him with about $109,000 in the bank.

Historically, Democrats have performed well in general elections within this district. Sherrill secured her reelection in 2024 with around 57% of the vote, while Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won the district with 53% at the top of the ballot. The district itself comprises more than half of Morris County, with about 39% in Essex County and 9% in Passaic County. Notably, Harris garnered 64% of the vote in Essex County, highlighting the area’s strong Democratic leanings.

As the election unfolds, the Associated Press will monitor developments closely. They do not project winners until it is clear that there are no viable scenarios for trailing candidates to catch up. If a race remains too close to call, the AP will continue to provide updates on any significant events, including candidate concessions or victory declarations.

New Jersey does not automatically trigger recounts; however, candidates or voters may formally request them at their own expense, with costs refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may call a winner in a race even subject to a recount if the margin is deemed too significant for the outcome to shift.

Key details about the election include:

Poll Closing and Voting Details

When do polls close? Polls will close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot? The AP will provide results and declare a winner in the special congressional election for the 11th District, with a write-in option available for voters.

Who gets to vote? Any registered voter in the 11th District is eligible to participate in the special election.

Turnout and Voting Trends

What does turnout look like? As of April 1, there were approximately 603,000 registered voters in the 11th Congressional District, with about 230,000 registered as Democrats, 165,000 as Republicans, and 204,000 unaffiliated with any party. The rest belong to various minor parties. In the February 5 Democratic primary, over 68,000 ballots were cast, compared to around 16,000 for the Republican contest.

In the 2024 general election, around 394,000 votes were cast, with nearly half of them submitted before Election Day. As of Monday, about 54,000 votes had already been cast in the current election cycle, including approximately 34,000 from Democrats, 13,000 from Republicans, and over 7,000 from unaffiliated voters.

Vote Counting and Results Release

How long does vote counting typically take? In the February 5 special primary, the AP reported initial results at 8:04 p.m. ET, just four minutes after polls closed, with the final update around 10:30 p.m. ET, when about 91% of votes had been counted. The AP officially declared the race results on February 12.

When are early and absentee voting results released? New Jersey counties generally release the majority of early and absentee voting results in the first update of the evening, before any in-person Election Day results are disclosed.

Looking Ahead As of Thursday, there are 201 days until this congressional seat will be contested again in the 2026 midterm elections.

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For ongoing coverage of the 2026 election, visit AP News.

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