DUBAI – Negotiators from Iran and the United States are gearing up for high-level discussions set to commence in Islamabad, aimed at stabilizing a precarious ceasefire amidst ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, alongside Iran’s significant influence over the vital Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to depart from Washington, while Iran has yet to disclose its negotiating team. The Iranian semiofficial Tasnim news agency, closely linked with the Revolutionary Guard, has asserted that any talks will be “suspended” if the U.S. does not take steps to halt Israeli military actions in Lebanon.
In a related incident, Kuwait has reported a drone attack, which it attributes to Iran and its militia affiliates. Although Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has denied any involvement, it has a history of conducting operations in the region without claiming responsibility.
Simultaneously, discussions regarding Israel-Lebanon relations are anticipated to initiate next week at the U.S. Department of State, potentially enhancing ceasefire efforts in the Middle East. This information was shared by a U.S. official and another source familiar with the ongoing negotiations, both of whom requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
This development follows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement on Thursday, where he expressed his authorization for direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible” to disarm Hezbollah militants, who are backed by Iran, and to foster diplomatic relations between the two nations.
It is noteworthy that Israel and Lebanon have been in a state of war since the establishment of Israel in 1948. Netanyahu emphasized that no ceasefire currently exists between the two nations. The recent Israeli military actions, including airstrikes on Beirut, have raised questions about whether the ceasefire agreement includes a halt to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, particularly following a deadly escalation in Lebanon.
The impending negotiations in Washington are expected to involve U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter, according to sources familiar with the plans. As of Friday morning, the Lebanese government had not publicly responded to these developments, and it remains unclear who will represent Lebanon in these discussions.
Pressure on the ceasefire remains high, with both Iran and the U.S. seemingly exerting influence over one another. Iranian media have reported that forces have mined the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, an essential route for global oil transport, which Tehran has previously threatened to close. U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that American forces would respond more aggressively if Iran fails to adhere to the ceasefire agreement.
Late Thursday, Trump expressed skepticism regarding Iran’s compliance with the ceasefire on social media, stating: “Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz.” He criticized the limited shipping traffic permitted by Iran, emphasizing that it did not align with the agreed terms.
The ongoing situation underscores Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, as evidenced by a recent incident where a Botswana-flagged liquefied natural gas tanker, ordered to navigate a specific route by the Revolutionary Guard, abruptly turned back. This incident highlights the volatility and risk associated with maritime traffic in this critical area.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia has reported damage to a vital pipeline due to recent attacks, further complicating the regional dynamics. The state-run Saudi Press Agency cited an anonymous official confirming the damage to the East-West pipeline, which is crucial for transporting oil to the Red Sea and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
Questions linger regarding Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, a central issue in ongoing tensions, as well as the future of maritime traffic through the Strait and Iran’s capacity to conduct missile attacks or support armed groups in the region.
In a warning from Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, he stated that continued Israeli strikes against Hezbollah would incur “explicit costs and STRONG responses.” Qalibaf has emerged as a potential negotiator for the upcoming talks with Vance in Islamabad, further complicating the diplomatic landscape.
In light of the escalating conflict, Trump has urged Netanyahu to reduce military actions in Lebanon. The Lebanese health ministry reported over 300 fatalities and more than 1,100 injuries resulting from Israeli strikes, marking a severe escalation in hostilities.
Early Friday, Israeli military operations targeted approximately ten launchers in Lebanon that had fired rockets into northern Israel, signaling that hostilities are far from resolved.
Amid these tensions, the threat of mines in the Strait of Hormuz looms large. Reports from Iranian news agencies indicate that the Revolutionary Guard has deployed sea mines in the strait, potentially to exert pressure on U.S. interests.
A chart released by ISNA news and Tasnim highlighted a “danger zone” marked in Farsi over the shipping routes, signifying the risks that vessels face. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime corridor through which approximately 20% of the world’s traded oil and natural gas passes.
The ongoing de facto closure of the strait has led to a spike in oil prices, exacerbating economic pressures globally. As of Friday, the Brent crude oil price was around $96, reflecting a 35% increase since the conflict escalated.
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Corder reported from The Hague, Netherlands. Becatoros reported from Athens, Greece. Associated Press writers Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong, Zeke Miller, Matthew Lee and Will Weissert in Washington, Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City and Kareem Chehayeb and Hussein Malla in Beirut contributed to this report.
