On March 4, the day after the Texas Senate Republican primary, President Donald Trump was resolute — he would be endorsing “soon” in the runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, and he wanted the contest to end quickly.
However, more than a month later, Trump has remained noncommittal regarding the runoff. He has stayed on the sidelines well past the deadline for candidates to drop off the May ballot, and he has downplayed the threat posed by Democratic nominee James Talarico.
“I believe that any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death or even a child, would win,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on March 22. “He may be the Worst candidate I have ever seen.”
This statement marked a notable shift from Trump’s earlier message, where he expected the candidate he did not endorse to drop out for “the good of the Party,” emphasizing the importance of winning in November. At that time, his posture seemed advantageous for Cornyn, whose allies sought to convince Trump that Paxton would be a weaker candidate in the general election.
Since then, Paxton supporters and activists within the MAGA movement have vocally campaigned against a Cornyn endorsement. Reports surfaced of Paxton discussing the runoff with Trump at a GOP fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago.
The notoriously unpredictable president could still make a decision within the next seven weeks. However, his inaction prior to last month’s dropout deadline has only intensified the rivalry.
“Trump not endorsing at this point has had an impact,” stated John Wittman, an unaffiliated Republican consultant and former adviser to Governor Greg Abbott. “The reality is that this is still a very close race. Paxton is probably the favorite right now, but this is absolutely a winnable race for John Cornyn.”
Trump’s decision to stay out of the runoff has coincided with a relatively quiet post-primary period, allowing the campaigns and their external supporters to reload. However, as the May 26 election approaches, the race is expected to regain momentum.
The primary super PAC supporting Cornyn, Texans for a Conservative Majority, has begun its runoff efforts, launching new AI-forward ads that criticize Paxton for various ethical liabilities, including allegations of extramarital affairs. The Cornyn campaign has indicated that more advertisements are forthcoming.
Aaron Whitehead, executive director of Texans for a Conservative Majority, remarked that after $100 million in spending during the primary, voters need a break from the ad saturation. Nonetheless, he assured that they would “see a lot more spending” soon.
The PAC has already been airing an ad featuring an AI-generated Paxton swiping on a dating app while giving money to liberal characters. Whitehead indicated that now that the race is a two-man contest, the focus will shift to Paxton.
“The problem is, for Paxton, now that it’s mano a mano, we get to focus on him,” Whitehead said. “Only $13 million was spent on him in the primary, just because it was whack-a-mole. We had to do positive [ads], we had to hit [eventual third-place finisher] Wesley Hunt. … Paxton already underperformed.”
Meanwhile, Paxton’s position is strengthened by the conventional wisdom surrounding runoffs, where a smaller electorate typically means that hardline conservatives represent a larger voting bloc. Speaking to a crowd at CPAC in Grapevine last week, Paxton expressed optimism about the runoff.
“We had six other people in the race — they took 18%,” Paxton noted. “That 18%, we’ve done the analytics, and more of them go to me than they do to John Cornyn. And finally, we’re gonna raise more money this time. He’s not going to outspend me 20 to 1.”
Early polling shows Paxton leading by a single-digit margin in most surveys, although many of these polls have been conducted by Democratic groups.
Texans for a Conservative Majority found the runoff starting with both candidates nearly deadlocked at 45%. A late March poll by right-leaning Quantus Insights indicated Paxton with an 8-point lead.
Some polling suggests that Trump’s endorsement of Cornyn might have limited impact on shifting the electorate, and Paxton has stated his commitment to remaining in the race regardless of Trump’s actions.
Pro-Cornyn Machine Starts to Mobilize
After his initial pledge to endorse, Trump has shifted his focus to critiquing Talarico, suggesting that the Austin lawmaker is a weaker candidate than his Democratic primary opponent, Dallas Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Trump has indicated that Republicans “allowed” Talarico to win before “releasing the avalanche of information we had on him.”
Since Talarico’s primary success, Texas and Washington Republicans have highlighted numerous clips of him discussing race, gender, and sexuality.
Trump’s belief that Talarico is beatable, regardless of the Republican nominee, undermines the Cornyn camp’s primary argument for an endorsement. They contend that Paxton could jeopardize the seat and drain essential resources from other Senate races in the general election.
Conversely, the Cornyn campaign views Talarico’s candidacy as a legitimate threat, asserting that Cornyn is
