In an impressive display of civic engagement, nearly 4.5 million Texans cast their ballots during the first week of early voting for the upcoming election. This turnout not only surpasses the participation rate seen in the 2022 midterm elections but also closely trails behind the record set in 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke narrowly lost to U.S. Senator Ted Cruz by a mere 2.6 points.
From October 19 through the end of the week, data from the Texas Secretary of State indicates that 23.4% of registered voters in Texas had already voted in person or by mail. In comparison, the early voting turnout in 2018 reached 24.3% during the same timeframe, highlighting a consistent enthusiasm among voters.
Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant and data analyst, anticipates an uptick in early voting as the deadline approaches, particularly on Friday, the last day of the early voting period. With Election Day set for November 3, he predicts that between 20% to 30% of total votes could be cast during the final three days of early voting.
Ryan’s forecast suggests that voter turnout could reach approximately 10 million Texans, bringing participation levels close to the 53% seen in the 2018 elections. However, experts caution against over-interpreting early voting statistics. Texas operates a non-partisan voter registration system, complicating efforts to gauge the political leanings of early voters. Analysts rely on historical primary participation and demographic trends to draw conclusions.
The early voting data presents an incomplete picture, as each county reports results independently. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, advises caution in interpreting these numbers. “There’s sometimes a tendency to over-interpret early vote numbers because we don’t have good benchmarks,” Jones noted, emphasizing the unique nature of each election cycle.
An analysis of the first five days reveals that 36% of ballots were cast by individuals who previously voted in a Democratic primary, slightly edging out the 35% from Republican primary voters. About 25% of voters had either not participated in previous primaries or had only voted in general elections, while 4% had mixed primary histories. Ryan remarked on the unprecedented nature of this early Democratic turnout.
“This is actually new territory,” Ryan stated. “I don’t recall a point where voters with previous Democratic primary history have outnumbered voters with previous Republican primary history.”
Vinny Minchillo, a GOP strategist, acknowledged the enthusiasm among Democratic voters but noted that it has also spurred Republican turnout. “Their enthusiasm numbers and polls are not what the Democrats are, but that doesn’t mean they’re not going to show up,” he said, expressing cautious optimism about Republican participation.
On the Democratic side, strategist Matt Angle pointed to strong turnout in urban areas as a positive sign, especially considering that rural voters account for less than 25% of total votes cast. “If you’re looking at turnout based on where it’s coming from, voter history and the racial makeup, then Democrats are doing better,” he explained. Angle also highlighted the importance of increasing turnout among Latino voters.
As of Friday, Hispanic voters comprised 18% of early voters, a slight increase compared to previous elections. Angle noted that Democrats aim for Latino voters to represent around 24% of the final vote.
Ryan is particularly interested in the nearly 2.1 million Texans who participated in the last four Republican primaries but have not yet voted in the general election. “For Republicans to have any chance of victory, they’re going to need to see a significant number of that 2.1 million to show up to vote,” he stated, adding that clearer insights will emerge by the end of the early voting period.
A record 19 million Texans are registered to vote in the upcoming November 3 election, reflecting a 7.7% increase from the registration figures ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. This surge in voter registration underscores the heightened political engagement across the state.
As the election draws near, both parties are closely monitoring early voting trends to strategize their final approaches, making this election a pivotal moment for Texas voters.
Disclosure: Rice University has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune within the past five years. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations, and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in our journalism. Find a complete list of them and more information about our financial and disclosure policies here.
