NEW HAMPTON, Iowa – Standing in the doorway of his home near the corn and soybean fields that blanket this stretch of northeast Iowa, Dave Roethler reflects on the stark differences between the Donald Trump he supported during his first presidency and the current political landscape. The 70-year-old school custodian recalls how Trump did a “heck of a good job” back then. Now, however, Roethler expresses concern over an economy that he feels is disproportionately affecting middle-class families, leaving Trump to “come out way ahead.” He is particularly critical of the former president’s aspirations for accolades, such as a Nobel Peace Prize or a spot on Mount Rushmore, suggesting that Trump may be suffering from “delusions of grandeur.” Roethler’s shift in sentiment is significant, as he plans to support Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections in a state that Trump won by 13 percentage points just two years prior.
Iowa has transformed into a crucial battleground for Democrats, especially in rural communities like Chickasaw County, which was once a stronghold for the party but has since leaned Republican during the Trump era. In light of this shift, Democrats are strategizing to narrow their losses and appeal to voters like Roethler. Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate running for a U.S. Senate seat in Iowa, emphasizes the need to “trim the margins” in rural counties as part of his campaign strategy.
The urgency of these efforts is underscored by the fact that competitive races are emerging in states that typically do not see such contests. Republicans are aware of their defensive position in these areas; Trump has been actively rallying support in states like Nebraska and Kansas, where they are investing heavily to maintain their majority in Congress ahead of the November elections.
In Iowa, the political landscape is shifting. Historically Republican districts are now witnessing spirited campaigns from Democrats, particularly in key races for governor, U.S. Senate, and multiple U.S. House seats. The 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses much of northeast Iowa, is one such area that has recently become more competitive.
Economic issues are at the forefront of voters’ minds, with tariffs impacting the agricultural economy and rising gas prices due to the ongoing war in Iran. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson highlighted the importance of Iowa during a recent visit, emphasizing the need to maintain Republican control.
The Republican erosion is evident in New Hampton, where former Trump supporters like Bill Stonecypher, a 69-year-old, now plan to vote for Democrats for the first time, citing a sense of disarray in the current administration. Similarly, 70-year-old Deb Thorne, another former Trump backer, is disappointed with Trump’s failure to deliver on promises to lower costs, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment.
Addressing the changing political dynamics, Democratic candidate for governor Rob Sand is actively reaching out to independents and disillusioned Republicans. During a recent gathering in St. Ansgar, he emphasized his relatable upbringing and aimed to distance himself from the contentious cultural issues that have polarized the national party. Sand’s focus on practical issues resonates with voters who are concerned about local matters rather than national controversies.
Democrats are also ramping up their investments in rural areas. The Democratic Governors Association has allocated significant funds to campaigns in key battleground states, including Iowa. This investment reflects a strategic pivot aimed at reclaiming support in areas that have traditionally leaned Republican.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is similarly focused on rural engagement, launching initiatives to connect with these voters through targeted advertising and grassroots efforts. Candidates like Lindsay James, who is running for Congress, are committed to showing up in every corner of their districts, aiming to rebuild trust and rapport with voters who feel neglected.
Economic frustrations could provide Democrats with a critical opening. A recent poll conducted by The Associated Press and KFF revealed that many rural voters feel worse off than they did when Trump took office in January 2025, with a significant portion expressing discontent with his handling of the ongoing war in Iran.
Despite these challenges, some rural voters remain loyal to Trump and the Republican Party. Farmers like Mark DeVries, while acknowledging the negative impact of certain policies, express confidence in Trump’s ability to address pressing issues. Campaigning alongside Republican candidates, Johnson warns that a Democratic victory could lead to political instability, including calls for Trump’s impeachment.
In contrast, Democratic candidates are focusing on the future rather than past controversies. Turek emphasizes the importance of looking ahead, while James prioritizes accountability and policies aimed at delivering immediate relief for families.
