It’s already been an intense hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean — and there’s still quite a ways to go.
Tropical storms have been appearing rapidly, almost like they’re on an assembly line. This unusual pattern is largely due to El Niño conditions, which started in June and have caused ocean temperatures to rise above normal. This warming has triggered a series of strange weather events around the globe.
According to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane expert from the University of Miami, “It’s ramping up to be perhaps the strongest El Niño on record.” With this increase in storms, the eastern Pacific has already seen more hurricanes than usual this season. Just this week, Hurricane Polo has been impacting Mexico’s Pacific coast, fluctuating between Category 4 and 5. Meanwhile, Hurricane Nolo is threatening Hawaii with the possibility of devastating flooding.
El Niño affects weather patterns significantly. During these events, low-level winds that typically blow from east to west across the Pacific weaken or even reverse. This shift alters the jet stream and can lead to extreme global temperatures, droughts, wildfires, and dwindling water supplies.
El Niño doesn’t follow a strict schedule; it tends to occur every two to seven years. Some instances are mild, while others can be severe. McNoldy predicts that the current El Niño will peak this winter but could last until 2027, meaning its effects will be felt for quite some time.
While the Pacific is experiencing a surge in storm activity, the opposite is happening in the Atlantic Ocean. El Niño usually suppresses hurricane activity in that region, and this year has been unusually quiet.
In the eastern Pacific, the number of tropical storms has already exceeded what’s typical for this time of year. Matthew Rosencrans, a forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, noted that there are four more tropical storms than average, with two months still remaining in the hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to November 30.
From 1991 to 2020, the average number of named storms in the eastern Pacific was 15 per season. Surpassing this number by September is unusual. Notably, three hurricanes this season have reached Category 5 strength, tying a record set in 2002, also during an El Niño.
The most active season on record in the eastern Pacific was in 1992, with 25 named storms. In the central Pacific, 2015 holds the record with 14 storms. Interestingly, in 2015, there were nine major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) in the eastern Pacific, but thankfully, there were no reported deaths. The storms formed farther west and remained over the ocean, avoiding landfall.
In contrast, during the strong El Niño of 1997, Hurricane Pauline caused significant loss of life along Mexico’s Pacific coast. That same year, unusual weather brought flooding to parts of Arizona and Southern California.
Hawaii has been particularly affected by recent hurricanes. In August, Hurricane Lala and, more recently, Hurricane Lowell caused extensive damage, affecting over 510 homes and resulting in $168 million in infrastructure damage. Lala alone caused $21.5 million in damage to schools.
Now, Hurricane Nolo is intensifying, and it is expected to bring substantial rainfall to Hawaii, potentially measured in feet. This could lead to serious flooding, compounding the challenges the islands have already faced this year, including a significant earthquake in May.
Historically, hurricanes have rarely approached Hawaii closely, with only two coming within 200 miles of the islands between 1957 and 2014. However, recent years have seen multiple storms threatening the islands.
As communities prepare for potential storms, experts are concerned about “preparedness fatigue,” where residents become exhausted from constantly gearing up for storms that may not occur. However, this year has brought an unusual level of strain for Hawaii, as communities deal with the impacts of continuous storms while trying to recover.
John Bravender, a meteorologist, commented that this year’s situation is unique, as residents are not only facing the impacts of ongoing storms but must also prepare for the next one. He emphasized the importance of being self-sufficient and looking out for one another in the community.
As the hurricane season progresses, it’s essential for everyone to stay informed and prepared, understanding the risks and the importance of community support.
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Associated Press writer Gabriela Aoun Angueira contributed to this report.
