In a closely watched Republican runoff for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton currently holds a narrow lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. A recent poll from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs indicates that Paxton garners 48% support among likely GOP runoff voters, while Cornyn trails by three percentage points at 45%. Conducted from April 28 to May 5, the poll surveyed 1,200 voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points.
Since both candidates failed to secure a majority in the March 3 primary election—Cornyn received 42% of the vote and Paxton 40.5%—the runoff has become a focal point for Texas Republicans. Notably, U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who finished third with 13.5%, is seen as a potential influencer in the runoff dynamics. The poll indicates that Hunt’s supporters are leaning towards Paxton, with 54% favoring him compared to 35% for Cornyn.
The question remains whether Hunt’s supporters will mobilize in the runoff and how their votes will be distributed. Throughout the campaign, Hunt has criticized Cornyn’s age and bipartisan efforts, particularly a gun safety bill, while presenting himself as a younger alternative to Paxton, who carries significant ethical controversies. Despite this, Hunt has yet to endorse either candidate, indicating he will wait for guidance from former President Donald Trump, who has remained silent on the race despite initially signaling support for Cornyn.
The poll reveals that both Paxton and Cornyn maintain solid support from their respective bases, with minimal shifts in voter sentiment since the primary. Approximately 95% of Paxton’s initial supporters plan to vote for him again, while 91% of Cornyn’s voters are also sticking with him. However, 7% of respondents remain undecided, with Cornyn having a slight edge in favorability among this group, which could prove pivotal in the outcome.
Demographically, Cornyn has a stronger appeal among educated voters, leading 52% to 42% among those with four-year degrees. In contrast, Paxton enjoys a significant advantage among voters without college degrees, capturing 55% to Cornyn’s 38%, as well as among voters of color. The top issues for Paxton’s supporters include immigration and border security, while Cornyn’s base is more focused on inflation and the cost of living.
Interestingly, two other recent polls have indicated that state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, leads both candidates—an unusual situation that raises the stakes for the Republican runoff. The Cornyn camp argues that his long-standing electoral success and appeal make him the stronger candidate against Talarico, while Paxton’s campaign contends that his alignment with Trump will energize turnout among less likely voters.
In addition to the Senate race, Texas Republicans are also selecting nominees for attorney general and railroad commissioner in the May 26 runoff. State Senator Mayes Middleton currently leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy by nine points in the race for attorney general, bolstered by significant personal financial investment in his campaign. Middleton’s messaging has resonated, while Roy aims to depict Middleton as lacking the necessary legal experience.
For the Texas Railroad Commission, incumbent Jim Wright is leading conservative challenger Bo French by seven points, though voter indecision remains high. Wright’s campaign focuses on reducing bureaucratic obstacles for energy projects, while French has attracted controversy for his incendiary remarks and focus on culture war issues.
As the May 26 runoff approaches, the dynamics of voter turnout and allegiance among undecided voters will be critical in determining the outcomes for both the Senate and down-ballot races. With the political landscape evolving rapidly, all eyes will be on Texas as these Republican candidates vie for their party’s nomination and the chance to secure a seat in the U.S. Senate.
Disclosure: The University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization funded by donations from members, foundations, and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters do not influence the Tribune’s journalism.
