WASHINGTON – In a startling shift of tone, President Donald Trump transitioned from issuing threats of “annihilation” against Iran to endorsing a “workable” plan presented by its leadership. This unexpected change led to an agreement for a 14-day ceasefire, which Trump hopes will facilitate a resolution to the ongoing conflict that has lasted nearly six weeks.
The rapid development came as intermediaries, notably Pakistan, worked tirelessly to avert further escalation of hostilities. Even China, Iran’s primary trading partner and a significant economic competitor to the United States, played a discreet role in seeking a pathway towards a ceasefire, as noted by officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Trump justified the ceasefire in a social media post, stating, “The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Long-term PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.” This announcement came just 90 minutes before his imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, or face the obliteration of its critical infrastructure.
On Wednesday, Trump is scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, with the emerging ceasefire and the reopening of the strait expected to dominate discussions.
As the deadline approached, Democratic lawmakers condemned Trump’s threats, labeling them as a “moral failure.” Additionally, Pope Leo XIV cautioned that attacks on civilian infrastructure would breach international law, referring to the president’s remarks as “truly unacceptable.”
Ultimately, Trump’s pivot may have stemmed from a pragmatic understanding that escalation could entangle the United States in a prolonged conflict, reminiscent of the “forever wars” that troubled his predecessors—wars he vowed to avoid if re-elected.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz would necessitate a long and expensive military operation. Initially, Trump had operated under the assumption that overwhelming military force could compel Iran to capitulate quickly, beginning with the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, he appeared to underestimate Iran’s willingness to endure significant hardship in a drawn-out conflict.
For 47 years, the Islamic Republic has demonstrated a capacity for resilience, enduring the 444-day hostage crisis from 1979 to 1981 and engaging in a devastating war with Iraq that resulted in hundreds of thousands of fatalities. Furthermore, Iran has maintained support for groups like Hamas, even amid conflicts that risked its own strategic interests.
Despite being outgunned and under pressure, Iranian leadership projected confidence that they could entangle the U.S. in a costly conflict, even if they could not achieve outright military victory. Defense analysts concur that while the U.S. military could swiftly secure the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining that control would require a high-risk and resource-intensive operation, potentially lasting years.
Ben Connable, executive director of the nonprofit Battle Research Group, outlined that securing the strait would involve controlling approximately 600 kilometers of Iranian territory, necessitating about 30,000 to 45,000 U.S. troops for effective operational security. “This would be an indefinite operation — so, you know, think: be ready to do this for 20 years,” Connable remarked, referencing past military engagements in Afghanistan, Vietnam, and Iraq.
The newly proposed two-week ceasefire plan includes provisions for Iran and Oman to levy fees on vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest that Iran plans to utilize the funds for reconstruction purposes, although the intended use of Oman’s revenue remains unclear.
Traditionally considered an international waterway, the strait lies within the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran, which raises questions about the implications of charging tolls for passage.
Senator Chris Murphy, D-Conn., criticized the ceasefire agreement, asserting that Trump effectively granted Iran “control” over the strait, marking a “history-changing win for Iran.” He described the situation as “both stunning and heartbreaking.”
The ceasefire announcement followed an appeal from Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who urged Trump to extend his deadline to foster diplomatic efforts while simultaneously requesting Iran to reopen the strait.
Trump has often utilized two-week intervals as a strategic pause in negotiations, previously indicating he would decide on military actions against Iran within a similar timeframe. This pattern has extended into various negotiations, including those regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine and other policy issues during his first term.
Despite setting high expectations with his initial demands, Trump has a history of retreating from maximalist positions. For instance, he rolled back extensive tariffs announced in April 2025 after they disrupted financial markets and abandoned his controversial claims regarding the acquisition of Greenland.
Amidst the announcement of the ceasefire, the White House underscored the military’s success and Trump’s strategic maneuvering as instrumental in creating opportunities for diplomatic resolution and long-term peace. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized, “Never underestimate President Trump’s ability to successfully advance America’s interests and broker peace.”
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Associated Press writers Samy Magdy in Cairo and Farnoush Amiri in New York contributed reporting.
